FUT 15 Investing In TOTW Regulars Coin Making Guide

Introduction:

Over a ten day period, we have been gathering price data (for both consoles) of the 5 popular regular players from our TOTW 4 predictions, which also featured in the actual TOTW. This price data will allow us to pinpoint the ideal times to make transactions to optimize profits when trading players based on “performance.”
Although our five player sample is fairly limited, we can clearly see from the graphs below that;

1. In the period of time beginning with before the TOTW 4 players had their impressive real world performances (02nd October) and the actual TOTW announcement (08th October) all players saw significant price increases. This would suggest this is definitely a viable coin making method for those that purchase players early. 
   
2. The cheaper players are more likely to see higher percentage gains, as shown with Naldo, Vejinovic and Lacazette (if purchased early enough). Furthermore, silver players, which are far more scarce than their gold counterparts, are going to fluctuate the most (price wise) for several reasons we will go into.
3. Just after the TOTW 4 had been announced (as shown by the red line on the first two graphs), the more affordable players had the largest reductions in price. This can be attributed to a supply increase of these players, as FUTers everywhere list the standard gold (or silver) versions of the TOTW inclusions en masse, looking to capitalize on the TOTW publicity and name recognition.
4. You will also notice that with the more expensive players (especially Robben), that the affordability of the player’s in-form card will often dictate the demand for that player’s regular card, as FUTers opt for the cheaper alternative. This will often help counteract any increase in supply.
5. Lastly you will also see that once the initial wave of supply hits the market after the announcement (3:00 – 3:30pm UK), prices crash and level out within the next 24 hours.

Analysis:

David De Gea

Starting our individual player analysis is the beast that is David De Gea, who helped Manchester United seal a 2-1 win over Everton. With a number of key stops, including a penalty save, De Gea ensured himself his first in-form in TOTW 4. As shown in the graph above, De Gea’s large increase in demand has meant an equally large increase in his price leading up to the TOTW 4 announcement. If you invested in him during the early phases of the Manchester United match, it could have made you thousands of coins! It’s also worth noting that you could have made decent coins due to the short term fluctuations in his price throughout the game, but we’ll document this phenomenon in another guide). Moreover, you can also see that the largest increase appears to be the 3 days after his outstanding performance. This price spike can be attributed to a larger increase in demand as FUTers start to anticipate his TOTW release. This often materialises due to an increase in ‘TOTW Predictions’ articles, giving many FUTers a clue as to who they may see feature. However shortly after the announcement, his card was listed in larger volume and thus dropped the price by 2,000 and 3,000 coins respectively.
The reason De Gea’s regular card did not lose too much value after the announcement, is that the EPL is so popular, a top GK is still in high demand. The IF took regular versions out of packs, and this early on in the game, that regular card supply decrease is enough to keep his price solid…You can see that as the forces of supply and demand start to balance, his price settles at around the 15k / 17k mark on Xbox and Playstation respectively.
Naldo

Now we move on to the popular, yet cheap Brazilian Centre Back (CB) Naldo, whose clean sheet, goal and MOTM award for VfL Wolfsburg helped ensure his first in-form card in TOTW 4. Naldo is not one of those players that you must have on your team, but he’s most certainly one of the better bargains in the game, and a highly traded player both this year, and in past FUT campaigns. It’s clear to see with Naldo that his price increase can be purely attributed to his superb performance against FC Augsburg, and evidently reached his peak price just after the TOTW announcement. The increase in supply after the announcement ensured he lost a greater percentage on his price as compared to De Gea. This can be attributed to a greater supply, relative to his demand, but still remained popular enough to settle above his initial value on both platforms. In our opinion, we feel that Naldo’s TOTW feature alerted many new FUTers to his regular card and thus may be the reason why his price has settled higher than his initial price before the TOTW announcement.
Marko Vejinovic

The Silver-rare Vejinovic is probably the most significant indicator out of all 5 players we analysed and follows the same trend as before, but with much more hype! It’s clear to see that as FUTers felt he would get an in-form, many invested in him and purchased a lot of his cards up until the actual TOTW announcement at just past 3pm UK last Wednesday, where he was nearing his peak (800% gain). Once the news hit that he would in fact be in the TOTW, hundreds of his cards got listed on both platforms causing a major price crash!  Prior to his 3 goals and MOTM performance for Vitesse, he was relatively unheard of and fetching around 500 coins on both platforms! With Vejinovic it was very important that one sold BEFORE the announcement, and at a price that would sell. This ensures you a very nice profit, and enables you to not panic about re-listing him at a lower price during his crash. Having to re-list an hour after the announcement if yours didn’t sell could have lost you in excess of 1,500 coins (300% of his original value) on both platforms. With this type of player it’s always better to be safe than sorry when it comes to making decent coinage!
Arjen Robben

Robben is in that price range where barely any FUTers can hoard his cards in any real quantity. Still, for those who were able to pick up even a single copy during Bayern’s match were rewarded with decent profit  Here, you are seeing a phenomenon easy to understand:

• Robben’s gold card is in short supply in general
• The TOTW inclusion ensures the more-affordable gold is out of packs for a week
• This supply decrease is noticeable (as not a ton were out there to start)
• Even if demand for non-IF Robben stays steady, supply decrease ensures more than just a “TOTW-hype” gain

When the hype dies down you’ll probably see that he’ll settle nearer his original value, as is the case with most high-end players that receive an in-form. It appears that the method of investing in potential TOTW “regular/base” versions appears to have been most safe with Robben, in that you would have still gotten away with it even in the later stages of the Bayern match. Although the price ranges are high and fluctuate 25k here or there, in general you can see an upward trend throughout.
Alexandre Lacazette

Last but not least, is the French, Ligue 1 Striker (ST) Alexandre Lacazette. Lacazette scored 3 goals and put in a MOTM performance for Lyon, as they upended Lille 3-0. With such an outstanding performance, it was obvious to most that he would feature in the TOTW. Once his place was confirmed, his relatively cheap card was listed heavily and his gold lost a fair bit of value. With such an obvious TOTW candidate, we always advise getting on the bandwagon early, and then selling before the announcement as it’s clear what will happen. Cheap players that are certain to feature WILL be listed in huge volumes, and thus will always drive down the price (unless, like in Robben’s case, huge volumes dont exist!).  One of the most interesting side notes is that this gold issue’s value ended higher on the 13th vs. its starting value on the 2nd, due to the exposure that comes with being in EA’s TOTW.

Conclusions – What should you do?

For all players analysed, you will see that purchasing before, or during the early phases of their respective games would have ensured very handsome profits!
TIP: With the exception of expensive players such as Robben, it appears that after the TOTW annoucement, supply will increase and prices will continue to fall until they level off roughly the next day. For those of you that like to invest in potential TOTW regulars, it appears as though you should currently sell them a few hours before the announcement for safe profits. If you take the risk and sell them just after the announcement, you could in fact be stuck with a player up on the Transfer Market for an hour, by which time you could be forced to accept up to a 50% lower price!
You should be able to make larger profit margins on the real cheap (or, non-Gold) players that are almost guaranteed to feature. The silver-rare Vejinovic is a prime example here, whos initial value rose up to 800% due to a) low starting value, b) lower supply, as silvers have in general, and c) his lack of name recognition pre-TOTW inclusion. You can capitalize on this by selling early as advised above.
Another point to note is that towards the end of that TOTW release, some cards will be at distinct lows as FUTers look to panic sell their excess stock. We suggest taking a small, but calculated risk and picking up these cards on the cheap, with the idea of selling them in a couple of weeks when their prices rebound (don’t do this around a looming market crash though).
In conclusion, this method is a lot more time sensitive, and difficult than most FUTers would have imagined, but by no means is it SO time sensitive that sharp football fans shouldn’t be confident that they can make good coinage. By taking price data you can begin to make informed decision as to what type of players make you coins, and at what times you should be buying / selling them. On the back of any price crash, coins can be made, and FUTers should also look to profit after the announcement and not just before where all of the competition seems to be!
We hope we’ve helped shed some light on an extremely viable, yet sometimes tricky coin making method. We’ve seen many questions posted on our Twitter feed, so we would love to know if this analysis article has helped you make coins.